Monday, April 30, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - This Long Shot is Easy to Find


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

It happens at every track and causes pandemonium when it does. A dog that always closes goes off at long odds and then astounds the crowd by breaking out of the box ahead of the pack and going box to wire like a bullet.

Of course, the crowd is convinced that "they" did something to the dog to make it do that. Or maybe "they" just switched dogs and put a breaker in there instead of the closer. Well, whatever they did, everyone knows they did something to make a closer turn into a breaker, right?

I'm not saying screwy things don't happen at the dog track. They do. But when this particular situation happens, it's often obvious from the program information that this closer is likely to break. And it's a good chance to make some money if you know what to look for.

When dogs drop in class, for instance, they usually have a few bad races where it looks like they're not even trying. If they're early speed dogs, they don't break like they usually do. If they're closers, they just lope along at the back of the pack and don't gain any ground at the end of the race.

It isn't until they start getting back into form that they "wake up" and get their old spark back. And when they do this, even if they're usually a closer, they may break and keep the lead throughout the race, much to the surprise of the fans.

So how do you know when a dog is going to do this? Well, I keep track of dogs who have a record of doing this sort of thing. It seems to be something that becomes a habit, so to speak, for some dogs. The thing is though that it's so long between instances of this that you have to go back more than 6 races to find it.

That's why people who keep track of what happens at the track do better than people who only go once in awhile or don't pay much attention to anything but the finish of the races. If you don't make a note of when this kind of thing happens, you won't be looking for dogs who do it.

So, next time the crowd goes nuts because a closer unexpectedly breaks, make a note of it on your program. Look at the situation of that race and look back at the dog's record to see if it has done the same thing before. If so, be on the lookout for the same dog in a similar situation in future when money can be made by people who expect the unexpected.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Think Outside the Box


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

My usual advice to greyhound handicappers is to stick with tried and true methods. Well, that's still my advice, but there are times when we all need to get away from routine. We get into a rut and our usual methods just aren't making it anymore.

Maybe it's because we've done it so often, that we're not as sharp as we need to be to handicap successfully. For whatever reason, when this happens to you, don't just keep muddling through. Do something about it right away before it drains your bank account - and your enjoyment of dog racing.

Here's what I do when I get into a slump. First of all, I take a day off and go fishing or somewhere else outside where I can have some quiet time away from the crowd at the track. I bring a good lunch, kick back and just relax for a day.

The next day, when I download a program, I go over it like I usually do, but then I do something else that I don't usually do. I look at the kennel stats. I look at the post position stats. I look at every piece of information that I can find in the program and on the track's website.

Then I go over the races with this new information in mind, looking at dogs from the top kennel to see if any of them look promising. I do the same thing with the top post positions. If the 1 box has been hot lately, I look at dogs in the 1 box to see if I can find any that look good in that position.

It's not that I think that every dog from the top kennels is going to come in. And it's definitely not that I think that, if the 1 box is hot, every race will be won by a 1. But, when I'm bored with my usual methods, I use a handicapping style that relies on extras.

If there's a good dog in the 1 box - a dog from one of the top kennels. And if the 1 box is hot, doesn't it make sense that this dog has something extra going for it? Two extra things: top kennel and top box. So, why not handicap it like it has an extra chance of coming in?

You don't have to use kennel or post position statistics. You can use whatever you want. Just look for dogs that have something extra going for them because of some information that you find in the program or on the web site. Add it to your usual handicapping method and you might find that your interest in handicapping - and your percentage of winning tickets - increases immensely.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - The Worst Mistake You Can Make


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Are you a good handicapper? Can you pick winners on almost every program? Do you make money at the greyhound track? If you can't answer "yes" to each of these questions, maybe it's because you're like 90% of the people who go to the track.

90% of bettors walk out of the track with less money than they walked in with. Of course, that means that 10% of them walk out with MORE money than they walked in with. So, what's the difference between the 90% and the 10%?

Well, the biggest difference, in my opinion, is that the winners are more flexible than the losers. They're not locked into habits that make them lose. They keep learning more and more about handicapping every time they go to the track, and they don't lock themselves into a losing box.

If you don't learn all that you can about picking dogs, you'll always be part of that 90% who keep doing the same things over and over - and losing. If you don't move with the times, you'll get left behind when the 10% are cashing tickets.

No matter how much you know - or think you know - about greyhound handicapping, there's always something more you can learn. I learn something new almost every time I go to the track, and I've been going for over 30 years! I learn from talking to other people, watching the dogs and keeping track of what happens in the races.

I even learn things from myself, when I go over the notes I make during the program! You can do this too, if you're willing to be open to new information and new sources of handicapping wisdom. If you want to change your winning percentage, you have to change the way you pick dogs.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - The Right Moves Can Make You Money


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Where you sit at the dog track can make the difference between winning and losing. Why? Well, if you sit really close to the totes, you'll be able to just get right up and bet in seconds. With hardly any walking or exertion on your part, you'll be able to spend most of the program sitting down.

But is this really a good thing? Sure, you won't get shut out, but you won't be sending as much oxygen to your brain either. Lack of oxygen can make you sleepy and dopey and I'm not talking about dwarves here. To pick winners, you have to be sharp and awake. Moving around can help with that.

Instead of making yourself as comfortable as possible, by sitting as close to everything as you can at the track, make it harder on yourself. Walk around. Go outside to watch the live racing and don't just stay in one place to watch the simulcasts. Get a drink of water from time to time, rather than drinking coffee. Coffee dehydrates you, which affects your thinking.

Your brain is the first thing to feel the effects of too little water in your body and your thinking will get sluggish when that happens. Walking to the water cooler will take care of your thirst and also give you a mental boost so that you can handicap with a clearer mind.

Another reason to move around at the track is for exercise. If you go to the track often and just sit in one place, you'll gain weight, and may even develop high blood pressure, diabetes and the other disorders that come with overweight and inactivity. None of this is conducive to good handicapping or to good quality of life. If you want to enjoy life, including greyhound racing, you need to be in good enough shape.

Try moving around more at the track and see if it doesn't help you handicap better and feel better too, even when you're not at the races. Get your body and your blood moving and you may find that your health - and your bank account - gets a boost.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - Systems Are Getting Smarter


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

The first system I ever used at a dog track was written on cheap paper in pencil. I got it from a guy who wrote it down while another guy told it to him between races. They both used it to make money and so did I, but they never sold it. They just gave it away to their friends.

I don't even remember exactly what it was. I think it had something to do with first to turn times. I do know that it worked if you used handicapping with it. I made money with it and so did their friends. Some of the best handicapping methods are the ones someone shows you between races.

Some of the other handicapping methods that I've developed over the years are more complicated and took much more time and effort to put together. The one that has made me the most profit took almost twenty years of tweaking and rewriting, but it was worth it.

Many of the older systems were spot play systems. Making a profit depended on finding a special situation in a race. They work, if you can find enough of those situations. At some tracks, especially, you can really make a profit from spot play systems.

However, over the years, I've come to favor methods that call for some handicapping on the part of the user. I like systems that rank the dogs by order of their chances of coming in. It makes it much easier to visualize whether a dog has enough going for him to be a contender in a certain race.

Being able to grade the dogs by several factors is a big help when you're going over a race. The newer handicapping methods give you an edge by doing a lot of the handicapping work for you, so that you can start farther ahead than the other handicappers at the track.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Statistics and Information Are Two Different Things


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

I've written before about how statistics can help us handicap. The more we know about a dog, the better we can evaluate its chances of hitting the board in any given race. Thanks to the internet, statistics are easy to find nowadays. Programs are free and most tracks publish kennel, post position and other helpful statistics.

But where this all breaks down is when handicappers mistake statistics for information that can help them pick winners. Statistics are facts. Data. Raw figures that tell us, for instance, that the #1 dog's kennel has a 12% win average, which is good. It might even tell us, when we compare kennels stats, that the #1's kennel has the top win percentage at that track. This is good to know, but it's not really information until we use it.

Useful information is what stats become after we read them, process them and apply them to the current handicapping situation. For instance, knowing that the 1 is from a top kennel, tells us that it's likely to be in good form and trained well. We can keep that information in mind as we sift the other factors such as Class, Speed, Post Position and Running Style.

Am I being picky by saying that the two things - statistics and information - are two different things? Maybe, but I think it's important that handicappers learn to distinguish between the two. Data can help us handicap, but only if we evaluate it and apply it to the situation of today's race. In other words, you wouldn't bet on the 1 dog, just because it's out of the top kennel. You'd look at the rest of its stats, put them together, compare it to the other dogs in the race and then decide if it's worth putting money on.

Statistics are wonderful things, but not in isolation. Handicapping is a subjective kind of thing where judgment, experience and even intuition come into play. Data is factual. It's static. It's like a snapshot in time, but often it's a time that has past. Knowing that a dog has been winning at a rate of 15% doesn't tell us whether it will win today. Stats that show that a kennel wins a higher percentage of its starts than any other kennel, don't tell us that it will win every race. And, most importantly, stats that applied this morning, don't tell us who will win this afternoon.

To figure out what will happen today, we can only use data based on the races that came before today with a big dose of information based on the stats and our interpretation of them.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Some Good Reasons To Go To the Dog Track


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Simulcasting has really changed the playing field when it comes to greyhound racing and horse racing, hasn't it? Some of us remember the old days when there was only one track to play and you had to drive there to play it. Not anymore.

At most tracks, even when there's live racing, most of the bettors are also playing simulcasts and may not even go outside when the live races run. I think that's a big mistake. One of the best reasons to go to the track is because it's the only place where you can really see what's going on while the races are running.

Watching races from another track on a TV screen just doesn't show you some of the things that can affect the outcome of the races. Track bias and track condition, for one thing, are harder to spot on the simulcast screen than they are in person. A low spot on a turn or the track being groomed between races isn't something you'll see on TV.

Then there are the dogs, themselves. You only get to see them for a few seconds when they weigh them in, if then. Some simulcasts don't even show the dogs, except for a distant shot of them being led to the boxes. I don't know about you, but I like seeing what I put money on.

I'm not saying that I don't play simulcasts, because I do. But I am saying that, if you can, go to the track you're playing and look around you so that you can evaluate the factors that can affect the races - and your bank account. Go outside when the races are ready to go off. Watch the races from beginning to end and make some notes while the race is still fresh in your mind.

It's little things that you notice - a dog that veers sharply to the left right out of the box or one that flies the turn and hits another dog - that you'll want to refer to next time those dogs run. You can't always see these kinds of things on a screen, but they're really easy to spot in person.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Should You Stay Or Should You Go


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Back in the day, there used to be fewer greyhound programs than there are now. When I started at Lincoln, also known as Twin River before it closed last year, there were 3 or 4 weekday programs, one on Friday night, two on Saturday and none on Sunday. Even more interesting, there were only ten races on a program.

With fewer races, it was easier to handicap a program, I think. Even if you could only get one an hour before the race went off, you still had time to pick the races you wanted to play and handicap them. I used to go to as many programs as I could, but it didn't take me long to learn a very important rule.

I never went to the evening program on Saturday, if I made money on the matinee program. For whatever reason, if I did, I lost some or all of the money I made during the day. At first, I thought it was a fluke. But after several Saturdays of losing, I realized that, for me at least, one program a day was enough.

Through the years, when I stick to that rule, I do okay. But when I hang around or come back for the next performance on the same day, I lose. Maybe it's because I'm burnt out from handicapping the first program. Or maybe it's because I get reckless because I think I'm hot stuff from picking winners all day.

It could just be coincidence, of course. There's a lot of that in dog racing. But I tend to think that there's a rational explanation for it. Whatever the reason, I know it's not a rule that I want to break. I've seen it play out the same way for a lot of my friends too.

As a matter of fact, my friends and I were discussing this issue at the track the last time we met up there. All but one of the six people I talked to about it, said that it's the same for them. If they win at the matinee, they lose on the evening program. We agreed that, for most people, going home after a winning day is the smartest move they can make. Of course, everyone is different, so if you've found that you're just as lucky on the second program as on the first, by all means stay for the evening performance.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - Should You Bet on This Dog Or Not


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

If a dog has the fastest time of all the dogs in a race, should you bet that dog? What if a dog has the most class in a race or has the highest win percentage? What if it's out of the kennel that's at the top of the standings as of this week? What if it's in the best post position or is the fastest breaker in the race? And what if it has all of these things going for it, would you bet it then?

Of course, you would. Unfortunately, so would everyone else at the track and the odds would be so low you'd have to pay back money if you won. Or almost, anyway. What I'm getting at is that most dogs have something going for them, but very few have everything going for them. This is where good handicapping, research, time and effort come in.

It's the handicappers who are willing to go beyond handicapping based on only one factor that are the most successful. It's impossible to figure out if a dog is going to win, judging only by how fast it breaks, how fast it runs or how many races it has won in the past. There are seven other dogs in that race who all have their minds set on catching the lure and they'll do their best to beat the other dogs to it.

This is why speed handicapping doesn't work. It's why even my favorite ploy - playing spot plays - doesn't work unless you do a little handicapping along with it. Just because a dog has a good reason for winning, doesn't mean that it will win. It only means that it has an edge over dogs who aren't coming off a good win or dropping down in class or doing any of the other things that gives a dog a reason to be a contender.

Anything that gives a dog that extra "oomph" is good, but by itself, it's not enough. Unfortunately, the crowd seems to focus on these one-trick wonders and bets them down to nothing. But maybe that's not so unfortunate if you're smart enough to figure out what's going on and find another dog that has more than one thing going for it.

Look beyond the surface of races where one dog is the big favorite because of one thing that sets it apart from the other dogs. Look for dogs that have several factors in their favor and find one or two to play to win or in a quinela or trifecta box. Don't depend on dogs that only have speed, post position or one other thing going for them. Dogs, like people, need as many things in their favor as possible to win.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Play the Most Logical Dog to Win


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Greyhound handicapping isn't an exact science, but it does often hinge on logic. For instance, if a dog has had 20 races, placed in ten and run out of the money in the rest of them, would you consider it a good win bet? Well, even though there are some people - born optimists, I guess - who would say "it's due", I wouldn't play it to win and I doubt you would either.

It seems obvious, but you'd be surprised how often the obvious is what happens in dog racing. And when it happens, you'd also be surprised at how many people don't realize that it's the most obvious outcome. Take dogs who win in Grade C, move up to Grade B, take a few races to win and then move up to Grade A, where they fail miserably. They look horrible, so when they drop back down to Grade B, most of the bettors take one look at their record and think that they're a lousy bet.

The reason they're NOT bad bets is because they've done something that proves that they're able to win in Grade B. Yup, they've won in Grade B. Even if they look horrible in their Grade A races, it doesn't mean that they're in a downward spiral. It just means that - for whatever reason - they weren't up to making it in Grade A. At least, not at this time. Maybe they'll move up again and make it and maybe they won't. What's obvious is that they've already made it in Grade B, which is where they're running.

When I see this situation, I take a really close look at the other dogs. Once in a while, you'll find a race where none of the other dogs has won in Grade B. To me, this is a situation ripe for the plucking and I play the only dog who has won in Grade B. And very often, it wins at good odds. People hate to bet on "losers" and that's how they see this dog, because it lost in Grade A.

One of my mantras is one that I got from Bill Peterson, the horse racing handicapper. Bill says, "If it happens once, it'll happen again." He also says, "Play the horse (or dog) that has already done what it's being asked to do today." So, next time you see a dog that has moved up through the ranks to Grade A, but hasn't won in A, and it's at good odds, consider it carefully. It just might do again, what it's already done, and put some cash in your pocket.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Pick Winners at Any Track


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Most of us have a favorite track. It might be the one nearest to our home. It might be the first one we ever bet on or ever won money at. There are a lot of reasons why people play one track more often than they play another.

I've found that some tracks just seem to be easier to figure out for me. Maybe the dogs are more consistent or the way they set up the races fits my handicapping style better. For whatever reason, I stick with 3 or 4 tracks for most of my bets.

However, if you only play one track - and many people do - you may be missing out on some good opportunities. If it's because you find it hard to handicap a "strange" track, here's what you can do to make it more comfortable for you.

I say "comfortable" because our "comfort zone" is what we have to move out of to do new things. So, with a little push, you can get used to handicapping a different track until you've done it long enough so that it's not a new experience any more. To do this, here are some tips.

Handicap the new track consistently. Don't just do it once in a blue moon, because that keeps it in the unknown zone. The more often you handicap it, the more secrets it will reveal until you get to where you can see a pattern to winning there.

The best way to do this is by betting on paper with free online programs until you feel confident enough to bet some real money on it. This way, you can still play your favorite track - the one you're comfortable with - while you get used to the new one.

Give it a try. What do you have to lose? If you play on paper - nothing but some time and effort. It's good for your brain to try new things, so it might even help you win more at your favorite track. Move out of your comfort zone and you just might find that it increases your bankroll and your enjoyment in greyhound handicapping.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Past Performance


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Like most serious greyhound handicappers, I'm always going over my old programs to see if I can spot something that will increase my odds of winning. Recently, I noticed something on some programs from the spring races at a New England track. It seemed to me that their M races and A races had dogs who ran much closer to form than the other grade races. I wondered why this was.

Why would M and A dogs at that track be more consistent? Why would they run the way it looked like they'd run, when the dogs in the other grade races didn't? It stumped me and I thought of all kinds of reasons why this would be so, until I suddenly realized that I was looking at this from entirely the wrong angle.

It wasn't that the dogs were more consistent in M and A at this track. It was that I was better at handicapping M and A races at this track. My method of handicapping M picked winners, because the factors I gave the most weight to when I handicap M races seemed to have more of an effect on M dogs at this track. Ditto for the A races, although I emphasized different factors for them.

I use a form of graded handicapping that I developed over the years. Not for me handicapping all races the same way no matter the grade or distance. As a matter of fact, I'm writing a system that covers this, but I keep getting sidetracked by writing posts and going to the track.

When it's done, the graded system will show how differences in grade and distance make it impossible to give the same weight to the factors that we all use to handicap races. M, for instance, is a grade where one factor is much more important than all the others - but only at some tracks. At other tracks, it's another factor that determines whether a dog wins or loses.

I had figured out which factor it was in M races at that New England track this spring and used it to pick winners in a lot of M races. Unfortunately, I wasted some - but not all - of my winnings on other grade races that are harder for me to handicap at that track.

We all have a handicapping style. If you look over the old programs for performances that you bet on, I bet you'll find that you're better at some grades or distances than you are at others. Like dogs who run well in A but not AA or prefer route races to sprints, handicappers are better at some things than others.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Friday, April 27, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - One Thing at a Time


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

If you want to sharpen your handicapping skills, here's a good way to do it. For several programs, maybe over a couple of weeks, just focus on one grade. It doesn't matter which grade you pick, although the top grades are probably easier to handicap. The point is to only do one thing until you can do it very well.

If you do this for long enough, you'll get to know the dogs that run in that grade. You'll know which post position they prefer, where they run and which dogs they can beat. After a while, you'll be able to see how the race is going to play out and who will be where at each point in the contest.

This narrow focus can turn a so-so handicapper into a very, very good one for that grade. And, when you have one grade mastered, why not move to another grade? Do the same thing. Focus only on that grade for as long as it takes to master handicapping it.

You can also do this with types of races - routes, for instance. Because there are fewer routes, it's not hard to get to know the dogs that run them. You'll learn which dogs come back to win in routes, after a "refresher" race in sprints. This can put a lot of money in your pocket, believe me.

Most people find it hard to do this kind of thing, because they feel like they're missing out on the other races. They don't see the long-range value of concentrating on learning one grade, but it can be more rewarding than the short-term value of playing all the races on a program. That's for sure.

When you play all the grades and all the races, you scatter your energy, your attention and your money too widely. When you zero-in on just one narrow type of race, it lets you handicap in much more depth and that depth is the difference between the average handicapper and the above-average one. It can also be the difference between making a profit and just breaking even - or even losing.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Number One Pace Secret


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

How to find pace in a race is crucial to greyhound handicapping. Many people think that it's impossible to predict what the pace of a race will be, but they're wrong. While it's not likely that you'll be able to pin it down to the exact time of the race, you should be able to get a pretty good idea.

Look at the dogs in the race and mark the ones that break first out of the box and then are also first at the 1/8th call. These dogs are the ones who will set the pace of the race for the other dogs. It doesn't matter, at this point, whether they can hold on to win, place or show.

Now, look at their times in their last races where they broke. If you see that those times are much faster than the other dogs' times, you'll know that they'll take the lead and hold it, at least to the 1/8th call. This doesn't mean that they'll win the race, because there are other factors that you have to take into consideration.

First, do these dogs fade? If so, and if there is more than one in the race, there's a good chance that they'll burn each other out in the first part of the race. If that happens, look for a closer to show up and pass the breakers at the finish line.

If the dogs don't fade, and if there aren't more than two or three, they may well be the quiniela or trifecta. This is because they set such a fast pace that the slower dogs don't really try to catch them after awhile. Sometimes, it almost looks as if there are two races going on out there with the early speed dogs way ahead and the slower dogs in a second tier.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Number 1 Reason Handicapping Fails


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

No matter how good you are at picking winning dogs, sometimes your bets don't come in. What you do when that happens can make or break your handicapping career.

If you just chalk it up to bad luck and go on to the next race, you might be missing something important. The biggest reason handicapping fails is because of trouble. That's right. It's not because you have trouble handicapping. It's because of trouble in the race.

Trouble calls after a dog's lines in a race indicate that either that dog caused trouble or was on the receiving end of trouble from another dog. Maybe it got bumped. Maybe it bumped into another dog. It could have run up behind another dog and onto it when the other dog slowed down.

Whenever there's trouble in a race that upsets your handicapping efforts, you should pay attention to what exactly happened. If you do that, you'll have an idea as to whether the trouble could have been anticipated when you handicapped the race.

If that's the case, you'll want to be aware of that kind of possible trouble in future races. If it wasn't something a handicapper could have anticipated, then there's nothing you can do about it, so moving on to the next race is the logical thing to do.

If you're a reasonably good handicapper, most of the time "trouble calls" will be behind your losing bets. It's the biggest cause of losing at the dog track and something that we can do nothing about, unfortunately. When dogs are racing at speeds of up to 45 mph, there's bound to be some trouble in some of the races.

Just be sure that you put enough time and effort into your handicapping, so that when you lose, it won't be for lack of trying on your part.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Never Underestimate This Dogs Chances of Winning


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Early speed gets a lot of attention at the dog track, as well it should. Fast dogs win races. But there's another type of dog that doesn't get nearly enough attention as the early speed dogs do. It can make you a lot of money if you know how to spot it.

I like closers, probably because they're a "come from behind" type of dog. It seems like they're underdogs throughout most of the race, until they gain in the stretch and close to pass the winner or to come in right behind the winner.

There's a certain type of closer that's one of my best bets. I can't even imagine how many times I've cashed tickets on this type of dog, but I know they don't owe me anything. That's for sure. They're what I call super-closers.

These dogs close no matter who or what gets in their way. Even if they're blocked right before the wire, somehow they seem to wiggle their way through the other dogs to nip the win at the wire. They don't always make it, but they never stop trying to pass the leading dogs.

These dogs are hard closers, who gain speed when the other dogs are losing speed. They run a much harder race than the other dogs, sometimes, but still have enough left at the end to pour it on. They deserve a lot of credit.

They also deserve a close look when you're handicapping. If you see a dog who closes on the leaders no matter how far back it is, consider putting it into your bet, especially if it's moving down in grade. With the grade drop and it's burning desire to win, you just might find that it pays pretty well.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - Mid Track Runners and Post Position


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Mid track runners can be tricky to handicap. If they break and get out good, and if there are only a couple in a race, they can breeze around the track to an easy victory. If there are several, though, and they all break at about the same speed, there can be a big shuffle when they come out of the box. It can even affect the inside and outside runners, as dogs knock other dogs into them.

When I handicap a race, I try to notice where each dog runs, keeping in mind that very few dogs only run on one part of the track throughout a whole race, no matter what the program says. True, there are a few dogs who only run the rail or only run outside, but most deviate from their chosen position sometime during the race.

Some mid track dogs go inside on corners. Some go outside on corners. This is where watching races and making notes is a big help when you're handicapping seriously. If you know that a dog runs midtrack until it gets to the first corner, but then veers inside, it can help you visualize what's going to happen to the inside runner next to him if they have about the same speed.

If you know that a dog runs mid track and is a closer rather than a breaker, it can help you decide whether it will have a clear path to close on the other dogs at the end of the race. If most of the other dogs run mid track too, it might be harder for the closer to get through the pack to the finish line. But if most of the dogs run inside, it might have a good shot at a win.

Although it might seem logical that mid track runners would prefer the 4, 5 and 6 box, this isn't as important to them as inside boxes are to dogs who run inside. Most of the dogs I've seen that run mid track, are able to do it from almost any box, although the far inside and far outside boxes might present a challenge to them.

Mid track dogs that break, especially, seem to be able to get to the middle of the track without much trouble from the 2 through the 7 box. However, there is the rare mid track runner who won't try as hard if it has to move from the inside of the track to the middle or from the outside to the middle. Once again, watching races and noticing little quirks like this in dogs is one of the best ways to make money at the dog track.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Looking For Improvement


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Greyhound racing is all about moving up and moving down. The dogs move through the grades, moving up when they win and moving down when they lose. They start in Grade M and usually take several races to win and move up to Grade J. Several races later, they usually win and move up to Grade D or C.

Then it's up the grade ladder until they reach the top or reach a grade they can't compete in. It would be nice if this was a smooth progression, but unfortunately, it isn't. It's a series of cycles and this makes predicting winners much harder, unless you get good at finding the factors that will tell you when a dog is ready to win.

These factors are right on the program, but most bettors don't have a clue what to look for, so they miss them. This is good news for handicappers who dig more deeply. The lines that can indicate that a dog is ready to win, are the comments and the calls.

If you look at the four calls - the Break, the 1/8th, the Stretch and the Finish - you can see whether a dog gained ground or lost it throughout the race. You can also see where it broke out of the box in relation to the other dogs. It would help if you had a program in front of you for this next piece.

Look at the break calls for each dog in a race. Notice that some dogs get right out, so they have a 1 or a 2 for that call. Other dogs get out 3rd or 4th and others get out at the back of the pack at 6th, 7th or 8th. This can change quickly though, and it's too bad that tracks don't still have the 1st turn call and Time to First Turn. If you get a chance to keep track of it yourself, do so.

If you look at the Break call and compare it to the 1/8th call, you'll see that greyhounds either gain ground between the calls or lose it because other dogs beat them to the call. So if a dog has a 2 at the Break call and a 4 at the 1/8th call, it means 3 other dogs passed it.

But if a dog has a 4 at the Break and a 1 at the 1/8th call, it means it managed to pass 3 other dogs to take the lead. To see if it kept the lead, look at the Stretch call. If it's still 1, that dog managed to hold on to the lead. Whether it won or not, it made a good showing.

To see if a dog is improving, look for the numbers to get smaller with each call. If it breaks 5th, has a 4 at the 1/8th call and a 3 at the Stretch call and comes in 2nd, it's improving. It would be a good dog to bet in its next race. Of course, what you want to see if improvement in more than one race, but even one is a good indication that the dog is "waking up" and going into form.

Of course, the opposite is true also. It's possible to tell when a dog is going out of form by looking at the numbers for the four calls. Another indicator, although not as reliable, is what the comments say for the dog's last few races. Positive comments usually indicate that a dog is improving. Negative ones can tell you that the dog is going out of form and is not a good bet.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Keep Your Eye on This To Make More Money


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Do you know what your Return On Income is on each of the different bets you make? Well, if you haven't been keeping track of this, I'd recommend it. I didn't for years and I know that it cost me money. For about twenty years, I would have told you that I was better at picking winners than anything else, but I was wrong.

I found out how wrong when I started keeping track of the ROI for Win, Quiniela and Trifecta bets that I made at one track, because I was working on a system and I needed to know how well it worked on each type of bet. Boy, was that an eye-opener! I found out that I was actually LOSING money on Win bets, but making a decent profit on Quiniela bets.

This certainly changed the way I bet and also the way I handicapped. I stopped looking for the dog that had the best chance of winning and started looking for 3 dogs to play in Quiniela boxes. And when I checked my ROI, two weeks later, it was way up. I still played the occasional Win bet, but Quinielas were my first choice and they really paid off.

When I started going to the horse track with my friend, Willie, I started from Day One keeping track of my ROI on each type of bet. After a couple of weeks, I was amazed to find that I did better on Win bets than anything else. Why it should be different for me at the horse track from the way it is at the dog track is beyond me, but the numbers don't lie.

If you haven't checked your ROI lately, you might want to do that. As I write this, it's the start of a new year, so it's a good time to begin something that can help you have a winning year.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Its Not Who You Know, Its What You Know That the Other Bettors Dont


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Yesterday, I posted a couple of dogs on my Watch Dog list. Two of them placed and one showed. That might not sound too impressive, but when I looked at the payoffs, I was happy. Rico's Red Bull, the 7 dog in the 1st race at Tri-State on 1/19,� paid $13.40 to place and the quiniela paid $26.80. His litter mate, Rico's Lipton in the 1 box in race 4 at Tri-State that evening, paid $6.40 to place and the quiniela was $66.40.

I watched the replay of race 1 and noticed several things about Rico's Red Bull. He got out well, not first, but second or third. He likes the inside, but was able to run mid-track when he had to. I liked the way he hugged the inside on corners and the way he kept going when he got bumped by the 6, EverettTheGreat, who finally got out of M by winning this race. I'm keeping Rico's Red Bull on my Watch Dog list and will play him next time out, as long as it looks like a good setup for him.

When I watched the replay of Rico's Lipton, I noticed several things also. He didn't get out very well, but he just kept running right up the rail for most of the race. However, he was so far back, I couldn't see how he could manage to place in the time that was left unless all the other dogs faded.

Well, he had other ideas. In the stretch, he apparently realized that hugging the rail wasn't going to work, so he made a move to the outside, ran around all the other dogs and just managed to nip place at the wire. He ran a lot farther than they did, and still managed to get in there for second.

I'm keeping my eye on this guy. He may have just gotten lucky this time, but he might just be smarter than the average bear - er - dog. Rico's Lipton and Rico's Red Bull are out of a litter by Dragon Fire and JR's Pure Luck and I'm keeping an eye on the other six dogs in that litter also. You might want to do the same, but if you do, don't just look for "Rico's" dogs.

There are 164 dogs with "Rico's" in their name, on the active greyhound list at Trackinfo.com. From Rico's Abbey to Rico's Zew. Some of them have well-known sires like Kiowa Sweet Trey whose litter with Gable Vermilion includes Rico's Burgundy who paid $85.20 to win in the 15th race on last night's program.

To confuse the issue, there was another Gable Vermilion litter with similar names, only they were sired by Flying Stanley, a very good dog also. Flying Burgundy, Claret, Magenta and Scarlet have done very well, but I'm glad Kiowa Sweet Trey was chosen to sire the next litter. I happened to notice Kiowa Sweet Trey and Gable Vermilion's names on the program in the last race and had a hunch that their puppy, Rico's Burgundy, was worth backing.

Up until the very last step, it looked like he wouldn't make it, but he nipped Blazin Toddie right at the wire. If I wasn't such an avid researcher, there's no way I would have given Rico's Burgundy a second glance, even for show. Obviously, very few of the people watching that race - or most races - researches the dogs, which is fine with me.

I put most of what I find up on my , but not all of them. It's not that I want to keep the "good ones" for myself. Sometimes, I'm not sure if a litter will turn out to be worth following or not, so I wait until one of them runs a good race. I guess I don't need to tell you that the first thing I did this morning is add Rico's Burgundy and his litter mates to my Watch Dog list.

If you have time on your hands, spend a few hours building a list of young dogs to watch. Start with your favorite, local track. Maybe next time you go to the track, you'll be the one cashing on an $85 winner while your friends wonder how the heck you knew it was going to come in.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Win at the Dog Races


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Failure to plan is planning for failure, or so the old saying goes. It's certainly true when it comes to picking winning dogs. While it's possible to get lucky a few times by picking likely-looking dogs, it's not something you can depend on. Luck is a very good thing to be blessed with, but it takes more than luck for most of us to make money at the track.

So, what about tip sheets? Aren't they a system? Well, yes and no. If the tip sheet writer is a good handicapper, they're a system. But there are very few of them that are worth the paper they're printed on. I can think of only one or two, and they're both on the internet, that are consistently better than pure luck at picking dogs.

So, what are we left with? A good greyhound handicapping system that is based on solid research. One that evaluates the factors that determine who is a contender and who isn't worth betting on. That's the most important part of making money at the greyhound track - figuring out what's a good risk and what isn't.

Playing the dogs is all about being able to find dogs to bet that have a good rate of return for risk. There's no such thing as a "sure thing", but there are certainly bets that have a much greater chance of turning into a winning ticket rather than scrap paper.

A good greyhound handicapping method can help you narrow down your choices until you get the best choice. It can also help you decide whether a race is playable or one you should pass on. This, alone, can save you a lot of money over the years. How many times have you played a race and then realized that you shouldn't have?

If you're losing money at the track, maybe it's time to consider getting more serious about the whole process of picking winning dogs. Maybe it's time to plan so that you'll stop failing. Whether you're playing win bets, quinielas or dime superfecta bets, a system can help you maximize your winnings and minimize your risk.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Tell If a Dog is Really Ready to Win


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

If you look at the dogs before the races, like I do, you've probably noticed that they all look like winners. They're alert, panting slightly with anticipation, pulling at the leash and just rarin' to go. But they can't all win, so how do you tell which one is really as ready as it looks to beat the others to the finish line?

Well, I guess you could say that all of them are "ready" to win, because they're all focused on catching that lure that keeps eluding them. But desire isn't enough. It takes more than picking a dog that "wants" to win to have you cashing tickets after the race.

I look for dogs who are ready to win by checking some factors that indicate that they're certain to take advantage of any opportunity the other dogs hand them. These are the dogs who will outrun, out-think and outdo the competition.

First of all, dogs who are ready are in mid-season form. They're healthy, fresh, pumped up and not likely to give up. How do I know which dogs are in this condition? I read the program. If a dog has had so many races that it's ready for a layoff, it's not fresh and it's probably not in form.

If a dog faded in each of its last four races, it indicated to me that this dog is out of form, injured, has a mental health issue with racing or just doesn't try. This is not a dog that's likely to take advantage of another dog's stumble or misstep.

But when I see a dog that has been really trying in its last few races. One that has been close to the leaders and maybe has overcome a bump or a stumble or some adversity and still come back from it, that's the dog I pick to win.

Dogs who are determined and racing close to the front of the pack are ready to do whatever they have to do to win races. So if you see a dog in good form, that's been holding its own against good dogs, give it a close look. This is a dog that is going to take advantage of every little benefit in a race. This is the dog you're going to cash tickets on.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Stiff a Greyhound


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

It's not easy, but it can be done. First, buy a greyhound puppy. Pick a good one, even though it'll cost you extra. You want it to turn out to be a good runner - a dog you can get the bettors to bet on, not a dud. Next, feed it and make sure it has all its shots and vet visits until it's old enough to start training for the races. When that happens, hire the best trainer you can find - don't spare the expense.

When your trainer has your puppy trained, enter it at the best track you can find in a race where it has a very good chance of winning right off the bat. You can do this by entering it in schooling races with the best puppies at the track and making sure that it can beat them, before it goes into "real" races. When it's ready, enter it in a Maiden race and hope that it wins by a mile. If it does, you're on your way. If it doesn't, try to train it to the point where it can at least look good in the middle grades, if not the top grades.

Now, you're ready to stiff this dog. Wait until it's entered into a big race, one where there's a lot of betting action and it's the chalk at really low odds. Now, here's where you choose your method. The famous "sandpaper on the pads to make them sensitive", or the old "make it swim in a pool until it's tired" or how about "make it eat a laxative before the race so its mind won't be on running? The method isn't important. It's the results that are.

The race goes off and your dog - the big favorite - runs a really lousy race. If it had won, of course, you would have made a bundle in purse money and gotten points for your kennel, which would have translated into even more money. But, instead, you got - what? Not much. The pools just aren't big enough at the dog tracks to make it worth any trainer's while to stiff a dog, which is why, in spite of what you hear at the track, it rarely happens.

That's right. Almost every time when someone tells you that a dog was stiffed, what they mean is that they handicapped it wrong or bet it wrong or it just didn't come in for reasons that have nothing to do with anything that the trainer did or didn't do to it. Sometimes, dogs, like people, just don't perform well. Or, just as often, they're good but another dog is just a little better and gets some breaks during the race that make all the difference.

Kennel owners and trainers almost always care more about their dogs than they do about winning, but winning is second on their list of things to do with greyhounds. Even if it were possible - and it isn't likely that it is - to make a greyhound lose, why would a trainer want to jeopardize their dog, their reputation and their livelihood by doing something so stupid? Very, very few of them do. I doubt very much that ANY of the well-known, successful kennels do.

So, when you go over your program, pick a dog and it loses, don't wonder how they stiffed it. Figure out if you handicapped it wrong or if it was just a victim of circumstances. Instead of looking for the guy with the sandpaper, look at the guy who spends hours of time and effort, trying to train dogs to win, not lose. Trainers and owners aren't into stiffing dogs. They're into winning just like greyhound handicappers are.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Pick the Right Race and Dog


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Most dog track programs have ten races, at least. Unless you're a superb handicapper, and I haven't met one yet, there's no way you can bet every race and make a profit.

But, how do you decide which races to bet and which to lay off? And when you do pick your races, how do you pick the dogs to bet in those races?

Well, the two things are so intertwined that it's impossible to do one without considering the other. In other words, picking the right race involves picking the right dog and vice versa.

When you look at the races for the first time, you probably get an overall idea of whether the race is going to be easy, medium or hard to handicap. That's the first step to choosing the right race. But when you go over the races for the second time, that's when the right dog is the key to which races you'll play and which races you'll sit out.

The overview of the race gives you a very quick snapshot of all the dogs together. Because you're just scanning the program, you're not looking at the details of each dogs' lines. You're just getting an impression of whether the dogs will be easy enough to handicap so that you can get four or less to bet on.

Once you've figured out which races you can handicap, then you can figure out which dogs, in those races, stand out from the other dogs and why. Anyone who has been handicapping for any length of time will tell you that there are many races where you can tell in a matter of a couple of minutes whether it's "handicappable" or not.

Once in awhile, you'll run across a race that takes a little more time to decipher, but most are pretty easy to classify as easy or hard to handicap. There's something about the makeup of most races that let you see at first or second glance how hard it will be to pick dogs that are obviously better than the other dogs.

In some races, the dogs are so evenly matched that you can't see why any one of them would beat the others. In other races, there are two or three dogs that are so inferior for some reason, that you wonder why they're even in the race. The first type of race is a good one to sit out, while the second type is relatively easy to handicap.

So, when it comes to picking races and dogs, give the program a quick overview to find races and then delve deeper into each of them to pick dogs. While it may seem like you pick the races first and then the dogs, it's a little more complicated than that. After all, the races ARE the dogs and the dogs ARE the race.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Improve When You Cant Move


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

It happens to all of us if we handicap the dogs long enough. We get to a place where we just can't seem to make any progress. Maybe we're winning a little, but not enough to get ahead. It's really frustrating.

So, what do you do when you get to this point? Well, there are only a handful of things you CAN do.

1. You can hang up your handicapping pen and quit going to the track. If you can find something that gives you the thrill that dog racing does, this is always an option. Find something else to do with your time to fill in the time you now spend at the track. Nascar would be an option, although you can't officially bet on it, or maybe other sporting events like football, baseball or basketball.

2. You can just keep doing what you're doing, hoping that things will turn around. Maybe you're just going through a rough patch like everyone does. It happens. Of course, if you tough it out and it still doesn't get any better, maybe it's not a rough patch. Maybe it's that you're in a rut.

3. You can improve your chances of making money by learning more about handicapping. This can involve getting some systems that can help you pick winners. It can also involve finding someone who can teach you how to become a better handicapper.

What you shouldn't do is just ignore the situation. Even if you analyze it and decide that you don't want to do change anything, at least you've thought about it. If you don't think about it, you're just letting things happen to you, instead of making them happen.

When you find yourself in this situation, you have to acknowledge it and take control or you're just passively accepting that you're not going to make money at the track. This is a loser's mindset and it won't help you win at the dog track or anywhere else in life.

If you're stuck and can't seem to get your handicapping going, do something, anything, to make it work for you again.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Find Longshots That Win


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

I love to watch M and J races, because puppies are so happy when they're racing. Even the ones that can't seem to win a race no matter how often they run are out there trying their best to win. But that leads to an interesting point.

Why do trainers keep racing puppies that don't win after many races in M? And, even more puzzling, why do some dogs - overgrown maidens - age out of M and go into D or C rather than get taken off the track and sent to be adopted?

On first thought, it might not look like it makes any sense to keep a dog running when it can't win puppy races. And why in the world would you put a dog like this into D or C with older more experienced dogs and think that it has a shot at winning? Crazy? Maybe not.

After over 3 decades of watching dogs like this, I've come to realize something. Sure, some of these dogs will never win a race and will end up on someone's couch. But there are other dogs who do lousy in M and then seem to "wake up" when they get to D or C.

I've come to the conclusion that greyhounds are just like any other youngsters who are starting out in a sport. Some of them are good to go right out of the box, so to speak. Others take a little more time and hit their stride after a few races in M.

Some will never run in the money or make it in racing. But then there are the dogs who just need a little more time than most dogs to come into their own. These are the dogs who strike out constantly in M, but go on to win in D or C when they're older and maybe a little wiser.

So, if you see one of these dogs, keep an eye on it. If the trainer leaves it in M until it's too old and then puts it in D or C, don't assume that it will never win. Watch it for signs that it's getting better and learning how to run against the other dogs. When you see improvement, put a small bet on it and you just might cash in big on a longshot that very few people will notice.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Bet on All Around Dogs


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Stakes races with the top dogs at the track are great to watch. It's kind of like the Olympics of the greyhound racing world. But it's hard to make money on these races, unless there's a big upset and there usually isn't.

The everyday races with the everyday dogs are where the money is. True, the better dogs still come in more often and sometimes they're at shorter odds. If you go over your program, looking for the right kind of dog though, you can make money on dogs that other people pass right over.

These dogs - I call them "all around dogs" - aren't flashy. They don't break any track records or stay in the top grade. What they do though is win often enough to make money for the people who are smart enough to bet on them.

These are the dogs that are good enough to beat most of the dogs in Grade C, but can only beat a few of the dogs in Grade B. So, they win in Grade C, move into Grade B and lose and people think they're not a good bet.

Then they show up in Grade C and win in a couple of races and the smart people who have been following them cash tickets. The punters who lost faith in them when they lost in the higher grade don't. If they kept track of dogs like this, they'd know that there's a time to bet them and a time to lay off.

Look in the middle grades for this kind of dog. Find some and they'll pay you as long as they run - and often they run for a long time. They're average dogs who are good enough to avoid trouble and stay in the game, but not good enough to be superstars.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Bet For the Best ROI


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Good greyhound handicappers know how much they spend and how much profit they make. They have a system for keeping track of their outgo and income. Do you have one? I'd venture to guess that most people who play the dogs don't have one.

If you go to the track, spend whatever is in your pocket and don't pay too much attention to how much you win and lose, how can you know if you're ahead or behind? You can't, of course, which means you won't know if what you're doing is working or not.

Besides the fact that it's just common sense to keep track of your money, you need to know whether the dollars you invest in bets are returning a profit or losing money for you. There's a simple way to do this and it doesn't take much time or effort on your part. As a matter of fact, it's almost automatic!

The first step is to decide exactly how much money you're taking to the track. Get that amount - in cash - and put it in your pocket. Now, every time you make a bet, write the amount on that race page in the program. Then, if you win, write down the amount you won. If you lose, put a big minus sign next to the amount you bet and circle it.

After the races are over, go through the program and add up the amounts you won and the amounts you lost. Total them on the back of the program or a blank page. Figure out whether you made a profit or lost money and write that information in large print on the front cover of the program.

Keep your programs in a central location at home and add them up as you go along. If you like, you can get a calendar just for this purpose and just put the amounts for each day that you go to the track on it. That way, at a glance, you can tell how you're doing.

When you subtract what you lose from what you bet, the profit is your Return On Investment. If your ROI isn't in the positive column, you need to consider a change in strategy at the track. Perhaps a new greyhound handicapping system would improve your bottom line.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - How to Beat the Competition


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Pari-mutuel wagering, as you probably know, means that you're betting against the crowd. You win when your judgment is better than theirs. But who are you really betting against? Have you ever thought about that?

Most of the people who go to the dog track are just ordinary people like you and me. They may drop in after work or take time out from doing housework to go to the track. They may be retired and play the dogs for something to do or because they meet their friends there.

I would guess that most of the people who wager on dogs are just doing it for social reasons, not as a living. Most of them bet numbers, hunches or just because they like the looks of a dog. Most of them don't handicap the program the way professional handicappers do. Almost none of them uses a system, and there's the biggest difference between the pro and the amateur.

Professional dog players always have a system - a way of handicapping dogs that is logical and successful. If it wasn't successful, they wouldn't use it for long. Some of them come up with their own system over many years of handicapping.

Others buy systems and then refine them over the years until they work even better. Tweaking systems is the best way to make consistent money at the dog track. Of course, before you can tweak a system to make it better, you have to find a good one in the first place.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - How Smart Are Greyhounds


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Why do greyhounds do what they do? How many times have you asked yourself that when your 6-5 favorite in an A race runs like a longshot in a D race? "What," you ask yourself, "Could have made that dog slow down like that on the first turn when there was no other dog near him and he was on his way to winning?"

Well, maybe if you'd been there for the dog's last race, you would have seen the pileup on the turn that squashed him against two other dogs, tossed him head over teakettle and scared the bejesus out of him. In his line for that race, it just says "fell on turn."

Dogs, especially hunting dogs, and that's what greyhounds really are, have good memories. They have to have the ability to remember to be good at tracking and cornering game animals, who are pretty smart themselves.

When something happens that makes a deep impact on a greyhound - physically or mentally - some of them can't just shrug it off the next time they go out onto the track. That's why, when a dog gets hurt, a smart trainer gives them a rest and then schools them or trains them at the kennel with an easy race or two.

It's important that the dog gets its confidence and "heart" back before it goes back onto the track. A few good experiences will "overlay" the bad experience and the dog natural desire to win will come back in full force. If the trainer doesn't do this, sometimes the dog will never be good for racing again.

If you see a line that says that a dog fell or got hurt, you might want to make sure the dog has had a rest and/or a schooling race where it did well, before you bet on it. In spite of their fragile appearance, greyhounds are very resilient, but they need attention, care and time to recover from the hard knocks of racing.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - How Important Are Kennel Statistics


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

There's usually a hot kennel at any dog track. Their dogs are burning up the track by winning more than their share of races. Sometimes, they'll win several of the fifteen races on the program, one right after the other. You go over your program and look at your picks and wonder why you didn't see it before you bet the other kennels. Geez, if you'd bet on dogs from HotBox kennel, you'd have cleaned up.

Or would you? Sure, a bunch of HotBox's dogs came in first and second. And, yes, the kennel does seem to be on a winning streak. But before you go back to the track determined to bet on only that kennel's dogs, let's think this over.

No matter how hot a kennel is, it's not going to have a winner in every race. Statistically, it might have a 30% win average, which is good. But that means that its dogs DON'T win 7 out of 10 races. And when they do win, they're often favorites at low odds, so they don't pay enough to cover the times they don't win.

Now I'm not saying you shouldn't keep track of the kennel standings, especially the ones that aren't doing as well. I think it's more important to notice a kennel that might have problems with sickness or poor quality dogs or maybe they've just wormed all their dogs which can affect their racing performance significantly. But I don't obsess over it. It's not a major consideration for me when I handicap the dogs.

My main considerations are the same no matter which kennel the dog comes from.� Class, Post Position Preference, Running Style and Pace of the race are my main considerations. If the dog that has the best of all of the above is from a hot kennel, that's all the better, although it might lower the odds and make it pay less if it wins. Still, you have to play them the way you handicap them.

Kennels have streaks, just like dogs and bettors do. Trying to pick winners on the basis of kennel standings just doesn't pay. One thing that does pay is picking a good handicapping method or system.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Good Isnt Good Enough


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Do you consider yourself a good handicapper? If so, how about getting better? Better yet, how about getting into the top tier of handicappers who make 90% of the money at the dog track? Don't think you can? I do and here's why.

As I've said many times before, 90% of the bettors lose at the dog track. Only 10% win at the dog track. Therefore, if you're able to pick dogs to the point that you're ahead, even if it's not by a large margin, you're better than 9 out of 10 handicappers and you should be proud of yourself.

Handicapping the greyhounds isn't easy. Very few people can do it consistently enough to make a profit, even a small one. Of course, if you're one of the people making a small profit, that's not much comfort to you. Your biggest desire is probably to make much, much more than just a small profit. You want big bucks.

You may even be telling yourself that you'll never be any better than you are now at handicapping, because there's some crucial thing that you just can't learn that keeps you from making a good profit at the dog track.

That's simply not true. Your problem is almost certainly that you just haven't learned enough about the factors that determine which dogs win and which dogs lose. You have part of the picture, but you need to know more of it before you can earn more at the track.

Unless you're really slow on the uptake - which is unlikely if you're picking winners at all - you can learn to handicap better and more consistently. Or perhaps it's not your handicapping that's the biggest problem.

Maybe you're very good at handicapping, but lousy at betting. That happens. Or you may be good at handicapping and betting, except that you make side bets or bet on too many races - including ones that you should sit out.

A good handicapping system can help you go from being a good handicapper to a much better handicapper, until you reach the point where you're one of the best handicappers. I've seen it happen with people who spent years just nickeling and diming at the dog track. If you're willing to put in the time and the effort. It can happen to you too.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - Focus On Winning


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

I'm married to someone who has ADD. Both of my kids have it too. They all have trouble paying attention and focusing on one thing at a time, because they're easily distracted by whatever is going on around them. I love them all, but I'm exactly the opposite. I'm a plodder, a focuser. My mind sticks with one thing at a time until it processes it and then I can think about the next thing.

What does this have to do with winning at the dog track? A lot. When I take my family to the track with me, they're all over the place. Literally and figuratively. They're off to the snack bar or back to the car for something they forgot. They're texting their friends, braiding their hair (in my daughter's case), writing a shopping list for tomorrow (in my spouse's case) or reading a newspaper they found on a table.

I'm the only one who's watching the schooling races before the program or going over my program to mark the scratches and remind myself of what I handicapped to bet before I came. Of course, my family will pick dogs because of how they look or because they like their names, so what's the point of them handicapping anyway?

But the point is that they notice everything, yet they notice nothing that will help them pick dogs. Me, I don't text my friends while I'm handicapping. I don't read the newspaper in between the races. I don't do anything else but pay attention to the dogs and the track condition and my bets.

Once in a while, they'll pick a dog by name or by looks and it'll come in and they'll be really happy that they "handicapped" a race better than I did, if my dog loses. I don't say anything, but what they do isn't handicapping. Focusing on the program, the dogs, the odds - that's handicapping. And that's enough to pay attention to if, like me, you don't have ADD.

I'm not saying that everyone should be a plodder or ignore what's going on around them at the dog track. I do think, though, that if you're easily distracted, you might want to try to focus more on the important things at the track. To me, this is the key to picking winners. Keep your mind on what you're doing, what the dogs are doing and what the odds board is doing as much as you can from the time you walk in, until you walk out, and you may walk out with more money than you walked in with.

Dog racing is exciting. When the boxes open and the dogs burst out, the crowd is focused on the dog or dogs they bet on. Will it get the lead right away? Will it make it around the first turn without getting blocked or bumped?

Then they're around the first turn and in the backstretch. If your dog is in the lead, you're staring at it, urging it on, whether you're yelling or just thinking (or even praying) silently. Then it's the final turn and as they thunder toward the finish line, you're watching your dog and hoping that no one will close on him at the last minute.

The first dog goes over the finish line and - if it's your dog - you're grinning from ear to ear and telling the guy beside you that you had the winner. In other words, you've just done everything wrong from the beginning of the race to the end and you're really happy about it, if you won.

If you didn't win, you still did everything wrong throughout the race, but have no idea that might be why you lost. Let's face it, you never even really watched the race at all. You watched your dog - the one that you bet on- and ignored the other dogs for most of the race.

Sure, you might have glanced at them out of the corner of your eye to make sure they weren't gaining on your dog. And in the turns you were gritting your teeth, hoping that none of the other dogs would bump yours.

But nine out of ten people watch a race without really looking at it to see what happened, other than to see what happened to the dog they bet on. This is why when they bet on some of these dogs in their next races, they won't have a clue about how to bet them.

When dogs race, even if you don't have a bet on the race, you should watch how the whole race plays out. Look to see which dogs run where, which ones break, and which ones look like they'd come in next race under different conditions.

When I watch a race, I make notes about dogs that just miss or need something that they didn't have in that race. That way, when I see that dog in another race, I know whether they're a good bet.

It's okay to focus on your dog for most of the race, but don't neglect the other dogs. They're the dogs you'll be betting on down the line, so get to know their running style. It's one of those little things that can make a big difference to your bankroll.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Five Ways to Make Money With Dogs Who Break


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Most bettors would much rather bet on a dog that breaks than one that gets out slowly. Veterans of the dog track know that dogs who take the lead have an advantage, because they often avoid the trouble that occurs in so many races.

While the dogs behind them are bumping each other as they jockey for their favorite running position on the track, the breakers are out in front with plenty of room to run. This makes for a much easier race for them. So why don't they always win?

For one thing, they don't always keep the lead. Some breakers are also faders when it comes to the end of the race. They just don't have the stamina to hold on to the lead all the way to the end of the race. One or more of the dogs who close at the end pass them and that's all she wrote.

If you want to use breakers to win money at the dog track, here are some situations where they have a much better chance of running in the money:

1. Find an 8 dog who breaks with a slower dog next to it

2. Find a breaker who is between two dogs who get out more slowly

3. Find a race with only one or two dogs who break

4. Find a dog in the 1 box that runs the rail with a 2 and 3 dog who don't

5. Find a breaker who got blocked in its last race but who won't get blocked in its current race

Breakers can make you money if you know when to play them. Don't forget to look for other dogs to put with them for quinielas and trifectas. They just might be the break you need to cash some tickets at the greyhound track.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Driven to Distraction


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Have you ever thought about how one little thing can change your life? Maybe you stopped to let someone cross instead of speeding up and making them wait a minute. Maybe they were elderly and walked slowly and you sat there for five minutes, wishing you hadn't stopped. And then, maybe you get down the road to where a bad accident has just happened and you realize that - if you hadn't stopped to let that old man cross the street - you would have been the guy the paramedics are trying to get out of the car with the jaws of life.

Sometimes, when little things affect our lives, they aren't as dramatic as accidents we miss or pianos falling on our heads out of 10th floor windows. Sometimes at the dog track though, little things can affect whether we go home winners or losers. The worst thing is that we might not even realize that it's happening, so we just keep losing and wondering why.

Other people can be a big distraction at the dog track. Whether it's friends who keep talking when you're trying to handicap or strangers who yell and swear and carry on when they lose, people can certainly take our mind off our handicapping. I once bet the wrong track because I was so distracted by a father who was yelling his head off at his three kids, who were running around and spilling their drinks all over the floor and other people.

Friends are wonderful things to have, but even good friends can be a pain if they push you to bet a dog they like or try to discourage you from betting a dog that you like. Probably the worst distraction from people at the track are the negative vibes that some people put out. You know, the people who are always complaining that the races are rigged, that they never win and that it doesn't do any good to handicap because they don't have any luck anyhow.

Somehow, all that negative karma just clouds my mind and I can't think straight until I move away from them. My feeling is that if you're negative, you'll attract negative luck and talk yourself right into losing. I'm not a Pollyanna, but I try to keep a positive attitude both at the track and in life in general. If you think you can't win and are completely negative about the dog track, why in the world would you go there in the first place? And what's more, why would anyone bet if they don't think they can win? That just doesn't make sense.

Outside of people, there are plenty of other distractions. Drinking and eating can get in the way of handicapping, watching the races and keeping track of your bets. I eat before I go to the track and rarely drink anything other than one or two cups of coffee while I'm there.

Carrying a bunch of stuff with you that you have to keep track of can take your mind off what's going on and at the very least, it makes it harder to get up and bet. You either have to carry it with you or leave it where you're sitting and most people don't like to leave their stuff behind. I've seen people juggling coolers and mini-TVs, even laptops, as they tried to make a bet. Heck, they could hardly find their program, never mind handicap it.

Kids are such a distraction that I won't even go into it, except to say that I only bring mine to the track when we're on vacation and I want to give my spouse a break. The day that I bring them, I don't plan any heavy betting. My feeling about kids is that - when they're with you - they need your attention and it isn't fair to them to ignore them while you do something else.

There's so much going on at the track. There are TV screens everywhere with replays, odds, horse races, other sports events and even news and weather. When I started going to dog tracks, the only screens showed replays. There were no simulcasts. No betting on horse races at dog tracks. No card rooms, slot machines or electronic machines of any kind.

We went to the dog track to bet on ten live races and we paid attention to those races. In some ways, it was a lot easier in those days. Nowadays, it's hard to find a quiet place to go over your program or even think in peace. So far, I've been able to find a place like that at most tracks, but as the live races diminish in importance and electronics and screens take over, they're becoming harder to find.

If you really want to avoid distractions at the dog track, I suggest that you go alone or with a friend who is as serious about winning at the track as you are. Someone with a positive attitude who doesn't have to talk every minute. Then, especially if there are no live races that day, go outside and sit.

I do that all the time and sometimes people stop me at the door to tell me that there's no live racing that day. They always look confused when I tell them that I know there's no live racing, but I want to sit outside anyhow. Apparently, I'm in the minority when it comes to wanting a quiet place to think. I often wonder if this is why 90% of the people who go to the track lose. Interesting question, isn't it?

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Dont Underestimate Or Overestimate This Factor


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Has this ever happened to you? You bet a dog to win and also bet it with other dogs in a key, wheel or box bet. The dogs come in and you win. You stand there, wondering how much the trifecta will pay, looking at the odds on the three dogs.

One is at low odds, but the other two are at pretty good odds. You think you might have to go to the IRS window. But then the payoffs come up and you're looking at a measly $200 tri. What happened?

Well, what happened is that a lot of other people liked those dogs for the trifecta too. They may not have bet them to win, but they thought they might get in there for second or third. That's the thing about odds. You have to have some idea of what a dog will pay before you bet on it.

Of course, this means you have to be able to figure out what the odds WILL BE on a dog, not what people will bet on it. You can never tell what people will bet. It's way too easy to underestimate how much they'll like a dog or overestimate it. Until the bell rings and the betting is closed, there's just no way to tell for sure what a trifecta will pay, even if you can see the quiniela payoffs.

Why one doesn't have much correlation with the other is because people tend to make one type of bet or the other. In other words, the same people aren't betting quinielas and trifectas a lot of the time. You know, yourself, that a lot of people only bet one type of bet. Maybe you do?

So, a lot of people who bet quinielas may like the 6 dog to win with the 3 dogs, but that doesn't mean that the trifecta players will like the same combination. And even if they do, what about the 3rd dog in the trifecta? The quiniela players may or may not like that dog in 3-dog quiniela boxes or they may like another dog entirely.

And then, of course, there are the people who only play dogs to win. And there are more of them than you might think, especially the horse players. They might put a twenty on a dog to win, which could skew the odds, especially at a small track.

So, as usual, the odds you have to pay the most attention to are the odds that YOU come up with based on your handicapping skill or system that you use. Try not to get too distracted by the other bettors and don't assume that the win or quiniela odds will determine the trifecta odds.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - Dont Talk Yourself Out of Winning


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

On March 28th at Twin River Greyhound Park, I picked a $30 winner in the first race. Trophy Tracker in the 4 box didn't look too good at first glance. He's a 2 yr old out of Iruska All Star and Ozsum Moonmist. Last year, he had 8 races with 2 wins, 2 places, 2 thirds and 2 fourths. Talk about consistent.

This year, with 7 races, he's only come in 3 times. They were all wins, but still. In this race, he's coming out of BB where he won, but he's facing some pretty classy dogs. RC Dirty Harry who's a solid A dog, although he seems to be in a slump. Pal's Magic Man, in the 8 box, coming off a third place finish in A after a good schooling race because of trouble in a previous race.

Even the 2, Haily D Laila, who seems to be struggling to get back into form after a 2 month layoff, is a AA dog. So, why did I like Trophy Tracker? Why don't you download the program and take a look at it while I explain what I liked about the dog and how I managed to miss the bet.

Because I live out of state, my trips to Twin River are few and far between now. I was running late and although I had handicapped the program at home, I still hadn't gone over it for the last time. So when I got there, I was walking and trying to read the program with about five minutes before the first race went off.

I saw where I had marked Trophy Tracker down for a Win and Place bet and gave him a look and then wondered if I was making a mistake. Sure, I had seen him come in from the 8 box before and he had run a really good race.

I had also seen him in his previous race to this one, where he went from 7th to 3rd with a really good effort, but got into trouble on the far turn when another dog bumped him offstride. I made a note on my program at the time to bet him in his next race, because he was so determined in this one.

Except for this race, he's always been in an outside box and he really prefers the inside, so I figured if he was closer to the rail, he'd have a better chance. Now, I began to doubt myself as I looked at all the class in the race. Maybe I was putting too much stock in that race I'd seen him run where he'd run his heart out.

While I dithered, time passed and the bell rang and it was too late to bet. I told myself I had probably had a lucky escape. A minute later, I was beating myself up for not betting him when the toteboard flashed the payoffs. He paid $30 to Win and $17.20 to place.

To my credit, I didn't walk out the door. I played the rest of the bets I'd picked and managed to make a small profit. I had two dogs that placed and a couple of quinielas. I also had a good lesson in not being my own worst enemy.

If you talk yourself out of bets by looking over them too many times, learn from my mistake. Go over your program. Write down what you're going to bet and bet it. There's nothing worse than talking yourself out of winning into losing.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Dont Go Off the Rails


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Handicapping a greyhound program can be overwhelming. There's so much information that it's hard to take it all in, never mind analyze it and use it to pick winners. For instance, there's post position. Many people think it's more important than any other factor. Then you bump into someone who thinks it doesn't matter at all and you wonder why you've been putting it first when you go over the program.

Well, post position IS important. But it's only one factor amongst several that you need to really compare as you analyze races. I think the hardest part of handicapping is knowing which of the many things that matter will matter the most in this race. That's one of those things that's a lot easier to figure out AFTER the race, of course. When you watch the replay where the 3 broke and immediately took a right and also took out the 4 through the 7, which left the 8, which broke out fast, to head for the rail, which the 1 and the 2 had abandoned to run midtrack, so that the winner - at 6-1 - was the 8, even though the 5 was the big favorite because it had just dropped down from stakes races.

If you managed to follow all of that, you'll see that the most important things in that race were the way the 3 broke and slashed over to the right, the fact that the 8 would outbreak everyone and also the fact that the 1 and the 2 ran midtrack, not inside, so they left the rail open for the fast-breaking 8. The reason I remember all these details is because I bet on this race. I had the 8 to win but I also had it in a quiniela with the 7, because I thought they might break together. So, for a $2 bet, I got $14 for the win and that's not shabby.

However, if I had really analyzed the race and paid more attention to that 3 and its running style, I would have saved myself $2. That was easy to see after the race. Not so easy to see before it. This will happen to you many times, if you go to the track often. You'll miss something like this and beat yourself up for it after the race, especially if it costs you more than $2. Don't let it get to you.

If you want to make money at the dog track, you have to risk money. You'll lose more times than you win, no matter how good you get at handicapping. The goal is to make more money than you lose. Don't ever lose sight of that. Keep poring over races, looking for what will really influence the dogs in that race. If you do it often enough, you'll get better at spotting situations that can make you money - or lose you money if you miss them and bet the wrong dog.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Dont Bet This Dog in Grade A Races


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

To pick winning dogs in A and AA races, you have to be pretty good at greyhound handicapping. Even if you are though, they're tough to call, because sometimes the dogs are just too darned good. They may even be dogs who have raced in stakes races.

Of course, dogs who are coming up win top grade races too, which is how the new crop of top dogs come from. It's important though, when you're handicapping these races, to understand exactly how likely it is that a dog who's moving up will be in the money in an A or AA race.

It's very unlikely that a dog will win in the top grade at a track the first time he runs a race in A or AA. Even a really good young dog usually gives way to the tough competition in the highest grade. Whether it's because the other dogs intimidate him or because it's such a jump from mid-grade to top-grade, I never bet a young dog the first time it breaks into the top grade.

That said, there are a very few dogs who win their way right up the grade ladder from M to AA without losing. But in my 30 year handicapping career, I can only remember less than a handful. It takes a true national stakes grade champion to overcome all the obstacles a dog meets moving through the grades so quickly.

So, next time you handicap a top grade race, save yourself some trouble. Eliminate the dogs who are racing for the first time in A or AA and concentrate on the more experienced dogs. 99% of the time, that's where your winner, quiniela and trifecta will come from.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Doing the Dash


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

Up until the last few years, the shortest race at most greyhound tracks was the 5/16ths of a mile sprint. With finish times around the 30 second mark, you'd think these races would go by in the blink of an eye, but when you have money on them, it's surprising how long they seem to take.

Well, now there's an even faster sprint - the 3/16ths mile. These races are getting more popular, but I'm not sure whether I like them or not. They're over so fast, it seems to me that they just start and they're over.

There's no time for jockeying for position or anything but pure speed. Almost always, the dog that takes the lead, wins. So that would make them easy to handicap, right? Not always.

It's rare that one of these races consists entirely of dogs who only race the 3/16ths distance. Usually there are dogs from 5/16ths races in them. The trick is to figure out whether the dogs who are switching from regular sprints will be able to win at the shorter distance.

I've noticed that dogs who are switched to this shorter distance, are often dogs who break but fade in regular sprints. Maybe their trainers hope that they'll break as usual, and with the race ending sooner than a 5/16ths, they won't have time to fade. Sometimes, this works.

But other times, dogs that break in regular sprints don't get out as well in 3/16ths races and never get to the lead. Maybe the shorter distance disorients them. Maybe it's that they're starting at a different place.

They begin at the end of the first turn, run down the backstretch, around the far turn and then to the finish line. There's only one turn to contend with and a long run for home. Dogs who are used to the turns of a 5/16ths race are expecting the usual number of turns. Some may get confused by this change and hesitate or wait to make a move to the front. In these short races, that can lose the race.

When I handicap one of these races, I look for a dog who gets out fast and has consistently fast times. I don't want a dog that breaks 3rd or 4th. I want one that always gets out of the box 1st. If there's no dog like that in the race, I pass it by.

Most of the time, I just watch these races and save my bets for the longer sprints and route races. Maybe I could get good at handicapping these lightning fast dashes, but maybe it's a case of an old dog being unable to learn new tricks. Whether you bet on them or not, they're exciting. Just don't blink, or you'll miss them.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Greyhound Handicapping - Dogs Who Run Outside and Post Position


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

One of my favorite dogs was Josey Lane. She used to break out of the box, even an inside box, and veer sharply over to the extreme outside of the track where she'd very often be when she came in first several lengths ahead of the other dogs.

Some people used to say that she ran so wide, only the fence kept her out of the parking lot. She didn't though. She ran outside. There's a difference, although it might sound technical. Dogs like Josey Lane are outside runners. They prefer to run along the outside of the track.

Now, this might seem to give them a disadvantage, because they run farther than the dogs who run along the inside of the track. However, if you think about it, the outside runners who run in the money are very strong dogs. Not only do they run farther, but they run faster than the other dogs.

Outside dogs aren't as prevalent as inside and mid track dogs, and the farther up the grade ladder you go, the fewer there are. Even rarer at any grade are dogs who run wide and manage to win, place or show. Wide runners, unlike outside runners, run along on the inside or the middle of the track, but go wide at times.

Most of the time, it's on corners, possibly because they've had problems with being knocked down by other dogs in the past on corners. More rarely, it's on the straightaways that they move over to the very outside of the track.

This running pattern isn't one that gives them an advantage, especially if they start out in an inside or mid track box. Outside runners, on the other hand, sometimes do very well from an inside or mid track post position, if they break well and get to the part of the track that they prefer.

Sometimes, chart writers will indicate that a dog runs wide, when it really runs outside or vice versa. Sometimes, the comment says that it runs "wide and outside" which really confuses the issue. It's up to the greyhound handicapper to take note of as many dogs as possible so that they'll know what their running style is.

If you see a dog in the higher grades, and its comments say that it runs outside, take careful note of how the other dogs run and also how that dog has done from the post position it's in for this particular race. That's the key to figuring out whether post position will help or hurt it in its present race.

Greyhound Dog Racing.

Greyhound Handicapping - Dogs Who Are Due, But Dont


Greyhound Dog Racing Tips.

"This dog is due." How many times have you heard someone say that at the track? Have you ever really thought about what that means? Does it mean the dog should run in the money in this race? If so, why? What makes a dog due? This past week, I had a reason to ponder this "due dog" thing after it cost me some money.

For family reasons, I spend the summer in a state that doesn't have a greyhound track. Luckily, the next state over has several so I drive there regularly. Sometimes I go for the day, but from time to time, I stay for several days at a time. Recently, I spent a week soaking up the atmosphere and putting down bets at one of my favorite tracks. I made some money and had a good time and, as usual, I learned something.

On the second day, I was sitting at the little table in my motel room, drinking a coffee and handicapping my program for that day. In the third race, which was a D race, there was a dog who caught my eye. He was dropping down from C and had run as far up as A in his career. He had early speed in a couple of his races and his quiniela percentage was a decent 33%.

Being in the quiniela in one out of three races is very good for a dog in C, so I figured the odds would be very low on this dog. I circled him for one of my quiniela box dogs, finished handicapping and went to the track.

When the race came up, the dog wasn't the favorite. As a matter of fact, he was at pretty long odds and stayed there until just before the race went off. Now, I don't usually make side bets after I've bet my usual four-dog quiniela box, but I was on vacation and ahead, so I went up and bet this dog to win and place. My reasoning was that he had a record of coming in every third race and he hadn't come in the money for six races, so he was due.

What was I thinking? He ran fifth and that was only because the other three dogs were having trouble with their walkers and canes. (Little humor there.) Like many a punter I'd heard before, I heard myself saying those words, "But he was due! How could he not come in?"

Where I went wrong with this whole "due" theory is where many a bettor has gone wrong. Percentages are wonderful things to know, but you have to keep in mind that they're just indicators, not written in stone. For instance, if a dog runs 100 races and runs in the money in half of them, he has a trifecta percentage of 50%.

So, if the dog runs a race and doesn't come in the money, he should be in the money in the next race, right? Wrong. He could run 50 races and not be in the money and then run 50 races where he is in the money. Or he could run 25 races in the money and 25 out of the money, then 25 in and 25 out. Or, what's more likely, he can run a couple of races in the money, then run out of the money for one or more races, then run in the money again for a race or two.

The thing with percentages and probability is that a probability of 1 out of 2 just means that the dog has averaged out to being in the money in half of the races that he's run to this point in the season. There are two variables here. One is that this is a record of the past, not a prediction of the future. The second is that, even if he does continue to be in the money in 1 out of 2 races, that doesn't mean that he'll do it in consecutive races.

He might win a race, come in 2nd in his next race and then run out of the money for four races before he's in the quiniela or trifecta again. There's really no such thing as a dog who's "due" even if his record is 100% in the money, because this race is a whole 'nother thing.

Greyhound Dog Racing.